Dear Ahmed,

I partially agree with you, however I feel the correction will be a mx of 10 to 15% .

Jazak Allah

Bit on a non-issue I believe. Most people that wanted to whiten their black money already did last year so this won’t really be an issue other than dealers will have additional workload.

I believe you are gasping at straws here, prices are out of your reach so you are really hoping for them to come down and I don’t think they will come down by much this year.

Yes its bit a non issue for haram money holder otherwise how come a country in crisis at the time when whole world is in crisis, where people dying from hunger and illnesses, where highest qualified , professional and skilled person average earning is 1-2 lak max , property prices are at the of UK and USA. How some one can have 30-60 million for a plot and house and few are around there to tell that its yet cheap. This shows how deep in drain we are with these plunder controlling rates of each and every commodity.. obviously anyone with hardly earned saving will wish a fair market and wil wait for all thieves looters to their end somehow.

You are aware that there are other societies besides DHA or Bahria, right? You don’t have to buy a plot or house in DHA or Bahria to enjoy quality living… if you are so concerned about high prices, just invest elsewhere. Real estate is very vast in Pakistan and there are many societies available. Everyone knows DHA/Bahria is expensive as it is very much targeted at the upper or elite classes anyways.

What a intellect… its not about individuals…

Look like you are telling that either play foul or leave..but no surprise to this as norm in our cripple society now unfortunately. ..hard to convey that issue is not DHA/Bharia or expensive places any such brand, organisation, places countries etc. All these are indirect product….  question is somewhat bit beyond you caliber tbh.

Where is the foul play? Everyone is playing by the rules… government has allowed exemption to income tax ordinance, taxes are lowered etc. Those conditions have generated a positive and favourable response in the market so prices have risen especially in elite areas. This is the reality of the real estate market right now and you are unable to accept it.

Also, you say whole world is in crisis, people are dying from hunger/illnesses etc, how is that related to real estate? Do you know, real estate worldwide is experiencing a massive boom? This is not just Pakistan-specific… recently a report came out saying there are more real estate agents in US than properties on sales you know? Prices there have skyrocketed and they will continue to sustain it because there is massive housing shortage just like in Pakistan.

If your point is to cry about how life is so unfair, you can do that elsewhere.

Lower tax of 50,000 brought this boom ?????

Don’t live in fools paradise bro.

I live in the UK, have been in USA many times, have business in ME so you are telling me COVID has helped price rise in the world? ???? Come on …

My properties are empty with no tenants for past 8 moths.

Please do a quick browse if don’t and if can face reality written in wall

“House prices in the UK are expected to fall by up to 8% next year, fuelled by rising unemployment and the end of the government’s stamp duty holiday.

Halifax, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, said the economic fallout inflicted by the pandemic would catch up with the property market in 2021, after an unexpected short term rise due to low interest rate during the coronavirus pandemic. It is forecasting a fall in house prices of between 2% and 5% for the year as a whole”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/21/house-prices-drop-2021-as-covid-impact-hits

https://www.jll.co.uk/en/views/jll-forecasts-uk-house-prices-to-fall-by-eight-percent-in-2020

But you keep it up…coz and it ll help earn for time.gook luck

That is my point… governments all over the world have produced favourable conditions to boost construction industry, this is not a Pakistan-specific scenario. And tax has not just been lowered by 50,000… are you out of your mind? First of all, duties and taxes on construction materials have been reduced leading to about 15% reduction in construction costs. Secondly, WHT has been halved saving 2 to 3 lacs per transaction. Thirdly, CGT time period has been halved and rate of CGT has been reduced. All this means lots of buying and selling and massive gains in prices. Obviously, black money being allowed into real estate helps but that initiative was also taken in 2019 and it didn’t result in a massive gain. Low taxes is key to boosting any industry.

As long as taxes are low, the construction industry will be fine. Whenever taxes go back to normal/are increased, only then can you expect some sort of correction.

So you admitted finally “Obviously, black money being allowed into real estate” and once that will be stopped by FAFT, it will balance things out. That’s all I wanted to mention and you got senti- unnecessarily. I understand it hurts the dealers very much any counter thought but desires are not always realities!

First of all, I am not a dealer. Second of all, black money is only a semi reason for why prices have gone so high recently… low taxes are the still the main reason and it is why you will not see any major correction in real estate prices this year.

And FATF will not stop black money from getting into real estate… FATF is more of a political weapon for the west to gain diplomatic leverage over Pakistan especially when it comes to Afghan peace process. I did not get senti at all, I just told you the truth as it is… you are hoping prices come down soon so you can earn a buck in real estate. Sorry but you’ll have to wait on the sidelines for a while now.

Guys a very well written blog by Capt Shahnaz that answer over-optimism of the guy (mr. sajad) and vindicate that the current hikes won’t be sustainable particularly in unpopulated /underdeveloped areas. so it’s wise to be vigilant in speculative times..

https://www.imlaak.com/history-of-pakistan-real-estate-past-present-and-future-part-1/

“….When a recession starts, the prices in populated areas typically falls from 0.5 to 1 percent and prices of unpopulated areas falls to almost 5% or even as low as 50% of the previously increased price. The populated areas represent the genuine end-user market, whereas unpopulated areas became a hive of speculative investments.

The unpopulated/under developed areas such as plots or files more or less have acted like stocks, showing a lot of volatility. While at 3 different ocassions in last 2 decades they have given unprecedented gains but for a long period of time they have shown either zero or negative growth. Populated or developed areas have remained stable in general and combined with rental income they have eventaully given  better returns under all circumstances.

The Government maintained a ‘no questions asked’ policy about the source of the capital coming in, and for decades the sector remained the ideal spot to park black money. This led to the creation of a property bubble with artificial price hikes and a widening supply-demand gap in the housing sector…”

I am not overly optimistic, I am being completely realistic looking at recent history. Butt sahab is very eager on seeing prices drop a lot this year as many others are… frankly speaking, that is not going to happen this year. So many people are saying ‘oh big crash coming in may june etc etc’ but that is not the case at all. May n June will be keys month for real estate as lots of news come out like FATF decision, budget, amnesty extension… prices can go either way, increase or decrease. But it is very unlikely a major correction will occur this year because black money is not all that matter, low taxes matter too. I will give you an example of how PTI gov in 2019 also allowed black money without questioning but there was no boom as many had expected and even the government was disappointed with low real estate activity. Reason? Because taxes were quite high… now taxes are low n black money is allowed so we are experiencing boom. Low taxes matter a lot because without it, fewer transactions take place.

Will a big correction occur? No doubt but not very soon, at least not this year. Whenever taxes are increased, you’ll see a major correction. Most people that wanted to whiten their black money already have so even if amnesty is not extended, demand won’t go down that much.

well no one said that this is going to crash in two months?

obvisouly once someone had artificial evaluation of 3 cror, he won’t digest quickly a drop to 250 lak in a month unless some one is desprate for hot money.. People normally hold wait and hope to touch same artification prices again before accepting real market and it can got a year wait sometime to get all level once its gone up in unnatural way.

I can see you are now admitted of that.. The one thing you missed and that is huge factor in the current increased transtions, is huge drop of bank interest. If had 2 cror in bank I was earning 20 lakh per year @11% interst and same time had full access to my money.. however, once interst is dropped to 2-3% I took money out and parked in property… so many people did that.. in addition many people lost jobs in middle east and they came back with capital (some end user started their houses- i know many.. so that all factors have been exhausted and can’t go for ever.. and this is no endless flow of income in pakistan nor economy is doing great.  Hope you continue earn more in this time of crisis and feel that nothing is affecting you but worst is heading fast and closed eyes ( living in fools dreams) won’t help.

I have invested money in property for long term hold so short term price doesn’t matter for me. I will hold my properties for 4-5 years at least. I am realistically telling you prices will not go down by much this year or might not go down at all. Sure people are suffering but they’re suffering all over the world and yet real estate is booming everywhere. There is no fool’s dream happening, everything is happening for a reason right now, market conditions are clearly still in favour of real estate and will remain so for this year.

haha, I can see how you are reassuring yourself that all is good and will remain same…

Govt policies are not for years, not even for months whereas Govt. itself runing on fringe..

So my message to anyone with Halal earning to stay very very vigilent in such turbulent, fragile and unprecedented times – avoid any greed and short cut for at least for a year or so.. Others are exceptions and there is good for them always.

Just rest assure it will be leveled very soon to natural growth so stick with law of reverse!

I am not reassuring myself, I am trying to educate you but you don’t seem to listen. Lets see what happens till December because taxes will remain low till then.

obviously I can listen nonsense to some extent but can not be agreed because I am not on any agenda brother. I just wrtitng here not to educate you but many others with hardly earn money.

I hope everyone is seeing the development within last 2 weeks where

•  UK has put Pakistan on high-risk countries list over money laundering, terror financing and just read name of other countries in the list to see where stand now(Albania, Barbados, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cayman Islands, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Ghana, Iran, Jamaica, Mauritius, Morocco, Myanmar, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Panama, Senegal, Syria, Uganda, Yemen and Zimbabwe) Reference https://www.dawn.com/news/1617835
• Current unrest due to outfits demands, govt. attempt to suppress and upcoming FATF meeting
• Pakistan disregarded bluntly to Climate Leaders’ Summit by US shows the significance how it is perceived as a snub in Islamabad
• change of federal ministers, pressure of IMF and so on..

so please stop telling people that their plots will perform sky high in this all turbulance. You also better sell yours too to materialize your profit and invest again may be next year when prices drop again… hope this helps

From my point of view, you are also speaking utter nonsense and misinforming people. I am not on any agenda either, I am trying to educate you and others who are making baseless claims. I already told you, I am holding my properties for long-term hold so I have nothing to gain from this.

You are once again gasping at straws… most of what you said is just completely wrong or it doesn’t have any impact on real estate. How is climate change snub even relevant to real estate? You are just very eager to see prices drop so you can reinvest in real estate, that really does seem like your agenda.

I can guarantee you a medium-size correction will happen but not this year. Maybe a small correction of 2-3% happens soon but that is normal. I already told you taxes are low, people are building houses due to massive government relief for construction. And this corona shenanigans has convinced many overseas Pakistanis to come back to Pakistan as they know they are not safe or treated like real citizens abroad.

Prices are not just gonna fall off and drop to half just like that… that doesn’t happen now because so many houses have been built since amnesty scheme came about. Medium-size correction will definitely happen in some underdeveloped locations but not any time soon. But I still know people like you will come up with utter rubbish in the hope that market crashes majestically.

Yes ‘people are idiots tbh’, people like you!

I know real estate goes through booms and busts everywhere but I am telling you no bust is happening this year.  I don’t need to watch anything to know that a major or medium correction will not occur this year. Seems like you are in your la la land thinking prices will come down by a lot this year, they won’t my dear. You’ll be on the sidelines for a year at least. The least you can do is not make baseless claims and rumours that will deceive others. Good luck.

hahaha. .. OK then think about next year..

Although you think you are ‘Mr. All Knows’ still better to be realistic… at least you started appreciating that your next year might not be same…

Mark it ‘PRICES WILL HAVE TO BE REDUCED and that won’t take too long and there is no rocket science in it.

Many from the middle class deserve their houses and don’t want psyche like you to tell them that Pakistan has Gold mines and people with fortune so the land will be rice sky high to the price a few months ago.  You really in stress about your investment. Just think how reduce prices can give me or anyone a business? but yes it will be fair to many hard earning with halal money to think about their homes, instead of money whitening heaven.