2021 Real Estate Forecast: Pakistan
Time after time, Imlaak has predicted the real estate direction correctly, even through crises such as Covid-19. Our ‘2021 Real Estate Forecast Pakistan’ is one of the most awaited posts. It is read by millions who follow the latest trends in real estate in Pakistan. What makes it even more special is that our previous forecast which was published in Jan 2020 has proven the efficacy of this analysis and research.
So how do we keep doing it year after year ? Well, maybe we have super powers? Or maybe we just keep getting lucky year after year? Or maybe we have experienced analysts who can successfully predict the market. As long as you guys are getting results, all you need to do is follow our real estate analysis and keep reaping the rewards.
Summary Round Up of 2020
Wow, what an year that was! It started with a big crash; a global economic meltdown due to Covid-19. However, it ended on a completely different note. The game changer for most was the Govts amnesty scheme offered in the aftermath of Covid-19. The focus of the amnesty was for construction projects and possession areas but that did not stop the speculators from raising prices in non-possession areas.
In March and April 2020, after the Govt announcement to allow people to start construction projects and homes without declaring source of income, we predicted a 20 to 30% increase in overall prices. This is exactly what happened and we saw real estate price flying like a rocket to reach a new high.
Pakistan real estate has always been a beneficiary of global crises. 2020 is the year we entered the new uptrend cycle in our real estate as the downtrend which started from 2016 came to an end.
Present Market Conditions
In the last two months of 2020, we saw correction in real estate prices. However, on 31st Dec, the Govt announced the continuation of its construction relief package through 2021. This has brought the positivity back and the market sentiment is shifting upwards once again. However, it is time to tread carefully as the prices are showing a highly speculative behavior.
The thing to notice is that although the Govt’s construction relief package is basically focused on constructions & developments, the plot sector also got its fair share including the non-possession market. I give the credit of this trend in non-possession areas to lack of knowledge and understanding and this gives us a good insight of how illogical our real estate market can be at times.
Another way to look at it is, that the expected price increase in real estate due to PKR depreciation just found a catalyst through this package. No matter what you believe we did inform you of real estate prices going high back in April, well before the prices started spiking.
2021 Real Estate Forecast
2021 is going to be an interesting year for real estate. It took me quite a long time to research and eventually we got delayed a bit as well. There are a lot of factors to consider this time to come out with this 2021 real estate forecast, market sentiment, global economic conditions etc . However most importantly it is the Govt’s emphasis on construction projects. We will surely see more undeclared money finding its way into real estate and the biggest beneficiaries will be possession areas and construction projects.
2021 will therefore be a year to invest if there is correction in the market. Considering the speculative nature of investments in plots and also the possibility that such relief will eventually come to an end post Covid-19, speculative trading in plots should remain as a secondary option for investment in 2021.
At Imlaak we only deal in select societies and bring the most safe of investments with maximum growth potential, from all over Pakistan, to the table. The list of societies and projects in Pakistan which are best for investment in year 2021 are listed below:
Apartments and construction projects in Lahore
DHA Lahore residential plots
DHA Lahore commercial plots
Gwadar Open Land
Sangar Housing Scheme Gwadar
We have selected these societies based on merit, safety, zero risk and maximum profits.
Besides this, more opportunities may arise during the year 2020 so we strongly recommend that you subscribe to our blog and stay in touch to remain updated.
Apartment / Construction Projects Investment Forecast
The 2020 construction relief package has clearly identified the Government’s intentions. It plans to fortify construction activities moving into the future and this alone is a good enough reason to change our direction as well. If you are purely an investor then the best time to invest in any project is right when it is beginning. Soft launch, pre-launch rates offer the best returns on investment and the safest time to enter a project.
The best thing I love about installment projects is the flexibility and hedge against bad markets and even USD appreciation. As you are paying slowly over the course of years, the ROI are usually much much better than you can get in plots. Unless you are an experienced speculative trader who can take advantage of changing markets quickly.
Sixty6 Gulberg Luxury Serviced Apartments
Sixty6 Gulberg is the shared vision of Imlaak and Imperium developers which is all set to change the landscape of serviced apartments in Lahore in 2021. The residential area has an entrance which boasts a grand lobby, privacy for each apartment and world class amenities including a swimming pool on the 14th floor.
For those looking for a rental property, Sixty6 plans to offer a 10% rental guarantee for a period of 3 years after possession.
And lastly, for all of those who really want to make Sixty6 your next home, we are offering you, 2 and 3 bed apartments on the 11th and 12th floors along with lofts on the 13th and 14th floors. The experience will be 5 star luxury throughout with dedicated lifts and amenities for permanent residents including a swimming pool as well as state-of-the-art smart home appliances and integrations.
It may be the perfect time to grab a piece of this upcoming project on its launch in 2021 as the project is covered by the Governments construction relief package and amnesty under section 111.
Goldcrest Mall and Residency DHA Lahore
Goldcrest Mall possession suffered in 2020 because of Covid-19 . However, this is all set to change as the possession of apartment buildings is expected as early as March 2021. This should give the project the required boost it has been waiting for a few years. I believe that the prices of the apartments will surpass 22000 per sqft easily after the announcement of possession and if you can get your hand on any thing below that now or later, it should be worth an investment.
Commercial malls should also get more visitors as new brands keep coming, and food court and cinema is expected to start operating in 2021 as well.
Downtown Mall Liberty
Downtown Mall liberty is offering a 10% guaranteed rental return on its apartments as part of the New Year plan. The project is expected to be complete by mid of 2022. This means if you are looking for immediate and safe rental income property then it is without a doubt, your best bet.
In terms of capital gains, you can expect an increase of 20 % in an years time when it is nearing possession in 2022.
We selected Indigo Boutique for those who are looking for apartments in mid price ranges. It offers great value for money considering that apartments in this area are around 22000 PKR per sqft. The building is about to complete in 2021 and it surely is going to give it a 15 to 20% boost in prices as early as this year.
ARY Laguna Karachi
ARY Laguna came as a surprise investment by end year 2020. We have yet to see how this may perform in 2021. However if ARY and DHA deliver what they are promising , this may turn out to be a great investment. Forms are still available and you can contact us if you need them.
DHA Lahore Residential Plots Investment Forecast
My opinion for investments in plots is that the real estate market is a bit unhinged. If we look deeper even with all the high in the plot prices in 2020 the prices are lower or at most at par with the prices in 2016. In addition if we consider USD than in most cases we have lost money. However the speculative traders made a lot of money in the short time starting from May to Oct of 2020.
It is therefore best to only find places which offer good opportunities for speculative trading or if you are looking for a plot to build your house.
Remain tuned for trading opportunities in the residential plot sector.
DHA Lahore Phase 9 Town
This does need a definite improvement in prices and we are seeing a bit of movement already in the start of new year. There are a lot of houses which have already been built and I do expect a steady increase in plot prices on genuine demand and maybe even some trading. However, it is not some place which is going to double your money so just expect a 10 to 15% increase in 9 town at the max.
DHA Lahore Phase 7
Phase 7 showed a lot of momentum in 2020. However in the last two months of the previous year we saw a clear correction. It is a possession phase and is directly benefitted by the construction relief package. I see it to remain mostly stable with more chances of correction in 21 and spikes will be short lived.
DHA Lahore Phase 6
DHA Lahore Phase 6 has reached its peak for now as it seems. However there is still a room for at least a 10 Million increase in years to come, and slowly it should gain further. I doubt for any strong rally in 2021. If your investment is only for capital gains, it is better to stay away from Phase 6. Not because Phase 6 is not good but Just because I believe other areas in DHA Lahore may perform better in short to long term.
DHA Lahore Phase 8
DHA Lahore Phase 8 has a potential to gain more than Phase 6 in 2021 and for me it is the safest bet if you are planning to invest in plots. The reasoning being that the prices are generally lower than Phase 6 and owing to its location and ongoing development, the chances of correction are bare minimum.
Given the choice between Phase 6 and Phase 8. I will definitely want to put my money on Phase 8.
DHA Lahore Phase 9 Prism
Phase 9 Prism gained as expected. Possession is expected in 2 years or a bit earlier. This will keep people interested in 9 prism. However any further increase in prices will be due to rumors of possession and if possession is delayed, expect a strong correction in 9 Prism. I feel 9 prism is better than phase 7 if you plan to do speculative trading yet less safe than phase 8.
Moving into 2021, 9 Prism will be my second choice for trading after Phase 8. Firstly due to upcoming possession trading is bound to happen here and 2ndly investors do love 9 prism anyways.
DHA Lahore Phase 10
DHA Phase 10 file may become the most sorted file among all DHA, only after DHA Multan and Gujranwala balloting. It may be a good time to invest on dip below or near 45 lacs for a quick trade or 5 to 10 years time frame.
DHA Lahore Commercial Investments Forecast
I strongly recommend commercial investments if you have the resources because they can build your rental income. So if you invest in developed areas and build a commercial plaza, not only you take advantage of the construction relief package, you also build yourself some good rental income.
Defence Raya Commercials
I feel the price is far too much for what it has to offer as there are plenty of plazas which are empty. It will take some time before commercial activity starts to kick in on its own. My advice is to stay away from it.
CCA 1 & CCA 2 of Phase 8
Thing is that it may gain prices as Phase 8 develop, but in the presence of Broadway commercial CCA 1 and 2 don’t seem attractive to me. Best bet is to stay away.
Broadway commercial Phase 8
This is going to be the biggest commercial market of DHA Lahore in years to come. So it is always wise to take advantage of lower prices and invest. This is the place which can turn out to be the next commercial hub of DHA after Phase 6 MB.
Prices in CCA 1 & 2 of Phase 8 and Broadway are almost similar as of now. However that may change as time passes and comparing both, Broadway has much better chances in developing into a premium commercial hub.
Park view 4 Marla files Phase 8
Prices are down and that means you should invest here. In 2020 we saw a renewed interest which pushed the prices as high as 260 lacs. However, later, they went flat again. I hope DHA administration pay some attention to this long awaited balloting which could change the scope of this investment completely.
Best place for steady rental income in DHA Lahore. MB has established itself as the commercial hub of DHA Lahore and we will see more activity in 2021. However prices shall remain stable due to rental income prospects.
CCA 2 Phase 6
Why bother when you have MB ? Keep your focus on MB in Phase 6 in 2021 until Bedian road expansion project. If you are looking for a mid range commercial investment than Broadway is also relevant.
CCA 1,2,3,4 & 5 Phase 7
Yes the prices increased in general in Phase 7 but that is because they increased everywhere. This area can not produce rental income for now so what good is it ?
9 Town 4 Marla Plots
If you want to invest in low price commercial in DHA Lahore, this may be the best area considering its location and chances of Bedian road expansion. Although not expected to give you huge returns in 2021, it is a valid investment for mid to long term.
Zone 1 , 2 & 3 & Oval commercial Phase 9 prism
You have to be patient to take advantage of price bubbles in 9 prism. The timeline of 9 Prism commercial makes me feel very uncomfortable considering that even years after possession in Phase 8, the commercial market is still not performing as expected. So if we get possession in 2 years in 9 Prism, it will be at least 4 to 5 years more before commercial activity starts taking its root in 9 Prism.
DHA Phase 11, Phase 2 Ext Rahber commercial
You can not invest everywhere, you have to select the best in your budget. In this investment you should look at 9 Town commercial or Phase 7.
Other Cities Forecast
DHA Gujranwala forecast
ARY Laguna is expected to be launched in DHA Gujranwala in 2021. This could spark interests in speculative traders and I see files performing well above average. However balloting is not expected in 2021 therefore the excitement may be short lived for DHA Gujranwala with minor highs. It is best to wait and buy plots after balloting.
DHA Multan forecast
2021 should be good news for DHA Multan overall. We have not seen the expected jump in DHA Multan so far and I believe we should see some major improvements this year. Focus on the inner blocks and you will be rewarded.
Gwadar real estate forecast
We do not see any short term trading opportunities arising in Gwadar in 2021. It is basically a long term investment and should be taken in that context. However Gwadar real estate is very volatile and can react to any positive news. Therefore you must stay tuned. Regardless of the rise or fall in future, it offers valuable returns in years to come and some place where you must invest.
When it comes to Gwadar, I strongly recommend that you stay away from private societies and invest only in time tested developers and GDA projects.
Sangar housing scheme
Sangar is a GDA project and offers great opportunity for investment and number 1 on our list in 2019 real estate forecast of Pakistan.
Marine drive commercials are another area you need to look at in 2019 when considering investments in Gwadar. It is a safe and a very valuable commercial investment for the future.
The prices are low and investment opportunities are huge in raw land. However you need to be careful when investing as a lot of complications do exist even now.
Jinnah Avenue commercials
The portion of Jinnah Avenue commercial between the old airport and coastal highway is lower in price and attractive for commercial investment in the future.
It is clear that investments in plots should be done only for two purposes, either to build home or to do speculative trading. If you are an expat or some one who is really interested in real estate for long term investment that pays you than you should move to rental generating income. Apartments or other construction activities will keep enjoying relief by the Govt in years to come and may be the best of both worlds, offering you speculative trading options as well along with rental generation.
Captain (Retd) Shahnawaz Yaqub Bhatti
Investment Consultant and CEO at Imlaak
Mob : +92 333 1717170 ( Whatsapp)